As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 26% probability that the answer to “Will the U.S. grant CAATSA sanctions relief to Turkey this year?” is Yes. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If the White House, the U.S. Department of State, or the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce the completion of a sanctions-relief action, through a waiver, license, termination, revocation, delisting, or equivalent mechanism, that removes or suspends any sanction imposed on December 14, 2020, under CAATSA Section 231 against Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) or any Turkish official named in that action, or authorizes conduct otherwise prohibited by any such sanction before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using ABC, The Information and MSNBC.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 26%, down from 31% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
