As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that the total U.S. student loans outstanding for 2026 Q4 is above $1.82 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit release. 9 outcomes · resolves Feb 5, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above $1.82 trillion”: If the total U.S. student loans outstanding for 2026 Q4 is above $1.82 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit release, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Student Loans memo item in the Federal Reserve’s Student Loans and Motor Vehicle Loans historical table, reported in millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted. For resolution, the reported value will be converted to trillions of dollars by dividing by 1,000,000. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
