As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 38% probability that the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 12, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
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If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Resolved using Office of Management and Budget and United States Office of Personnel Management.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 38%, unchanged from a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 12, 2026.
