As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 39% probability that a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027. 8 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Gemini”: If a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “Gemini” leads at 39%, up from 35% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Claude”, is at 17%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
