As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 95% probability that government spending increases by at least $1 billion above the Q4 2025 level in any quarter during 2026. 9 outcomes · resolves Apr 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least $1 billion”: If government spending increases by at least $1 billion above the Q4 2025 level in any quarter during 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Each quarter during Q1 2026 to Q4 2026 is compared against the Q4 2025 baseline. Resolved using FRED.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 9 outcomes. “At least $1 billion” leads at 95%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least $200 billion”, is at 94%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Apr 1, 2027.
