As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 95% probability that Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1033 feet. 8 outcomes · resolves Jan 7, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 1033 Ft”: If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1033 feet, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “Above 1033 Ft” leads at 95%, up from 94% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 1035 Ft”, is at 92%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 7, 2027.
