As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 81% probability that the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 14 and 16 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. 10 outcomes · resolves Nov 3, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Democrats, 14 to 16%”: If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 14 and 16 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 10 outcomes. “Democrats, 14 to 16%” leads at 81%, up from 30% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Democrats, 12 to 14%”, is at 17%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Nov 3, 2027.
