As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 36% probability that the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030. 4 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2030”: If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2030 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. Resolved using United States Department of State.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2030” leads at 36%, up from 34% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2029”, is at 28%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2029.
