As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.3 billion gallons. 8 outcomes · resolves Jan 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 4.3 billion gallons”: If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.3 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “Above 4.3 billion gallons” leads at 97%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 4.4 billion gallons”, is at 95%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 31, 2027.
