As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 22% probability that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2028”: If an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Resolved using The Guardian, ABC and MSNBC.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2028” leads at 22%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jul 1, 2027”, is at 4%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2027.
