As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 32% probability that legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2028. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2028”: If legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure. This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria. Resolved using White House and Library of Congress.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. “Before 2028” leads at 32%, down from 38% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before 2027”, is at 2%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2028.
