As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 23% probability that Alec Baldwin is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein released before Jan 1, 2027. 7 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Alec Baldwin”: If Alec Baldwin is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Alec Baldwin is considered to appear in the documents when either the exact term, phrase, or name specified appears in the content of the documents, or is present by way of commonly used abbreviation, direct synonym, or unmistakable reference including in any official appendices, footnotes, or tables. Resolved using Fox News, The Information and MSNBC.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “Alec Baldwin” leads at 23%, up from 21% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Stephen Hawking”, is at 18%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
