As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 69% probability that the individual holding the title of Secretary of Defense at the time of Issuance is the first within the HHS Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and the FBI Director to leave their position. 3 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Pete Hegseth”: If the individual holding the title of Secretary of Defense at the time of Issuance is the first within the HHS Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and the FBI Director to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes. The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. The person who held the position at market issuance must be the one who leaves (not a successor). Resolved using White House and AP.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “Pete Hegseth” leads at 69%, down from 72% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Kash Patel”, is at 17%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
