As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 15% probability that the Democratic candidate wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 131-210 votes above the second-place candidate. 14 outcomes · resolves May 6, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Democratic by 131 to 210”: If the Democratic candidate wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 131-210 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using United States Congress.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 14 outcomes. “Democratic by 131 to 210” leads at 15%, up from 7% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Democratic by 91 to 130”, is at 13%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes May 6, 2029.
