As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 17% probability that another Quebec independence referendum has a date announced (either by the Quebec provincial government or the Canadian federal government) before Jan 1, 2029. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2029.
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If another Quebec independence referendum has a date announced (either by the Quebec provincial government or the Canadian federal government) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The referendum's date doesn't need to be before Jan 1, 2029, a date just has to be announced before Jan 1, 2029. Resolved using The New York Times.
