As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 78% probability that on Jan 20, 2029 there are 6 Supreme Court justices appointed by Republican Presidents and 3 Supreme Court justices appointed by Democrats. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals”: If on Jan 20, 2029 there are 6 Supreme Court justices appointed by Republican Presidents and 3 Supreme Court justices appointed by Democrats, then the market resolves to Yes. If there are not nine justices at the time of Expiration, then only the “Not nine justices” strike will resolve to Yes and all other strikes will resolve to No. Resolved using Library of Congress.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals” leads at 78%, up from 68% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Not nine justices”, is at 18%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
