As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 94% probability that the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is 26% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints. 11 outcomes · resolves Nov 29, 2027.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 26%”: If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is 26% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is the share of the vote received by the People's Party in the election to the Congress of Deputies. It is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places (2). Resolved using Spanish Ministry of the Interior.
