As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 1% probability that the answer to “Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?” is Yes. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
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If a Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in Tampa (defined coastal area: the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida) from October 8, 2026 at 8:00:00 PM EDT until, but excluding, January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, as reported by the National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes. The specified coastal area for Tampa is the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida. The hurricane must be exactly Category 5 at landfall; a higher category does not satisfy this market.
