As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 35% probability that a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence before Jan 1, 2029. 3 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2029”: If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or the White House qualifies for this market, including Trump’s official Truth Social account and the White House Cabinet page. Resolved using President Donald J. Trump.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2029” leads at 35%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2028”, is at 15%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2028.
