As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 3% probability that the answer to “US defaults before 2029?” is Yes. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using U.S. Department of the Treasury.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 3%, unchanged from a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2028.
