As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 99% probability that the answer to “How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties in 2026?” is “2”. 7 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “2”: If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot, a candidate is treated as the nominee of the party they are listed on the ballot as preferring.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “2” leads at 99%, up from 83% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 5”, is at 1%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
