As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 95% probability that the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 2. 12 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Exactly 2”: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 12 outcomes. “Exactly 2” leads at 95%, up from 75% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Exactly 1”, is at 5%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
