As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 62% probability that an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 1550 score”: If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “At least 1550 score” leads at 62%, up from 55% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 1600 score”, is at 5%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
