As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 72% probability that the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2029. 16 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2029”: If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using IMF PortWatch.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 16 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2029” leads at 72%, up from 69% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jul 1, 2028”, is at 67%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2029.
