As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 84% probability that the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2026. 8 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “4.75% or above”: If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026. Resolved using U.S. Department of the Treasury.
This Financials market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “4.75% or above” leads at 84%, up from 68% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “5% or above”, is at 80%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
