As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Maine's 2nd District by 1 percentage points or more. 5 outcomes · resolves Nov 3, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “LePage, 1+ pts”: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Maine's 2nd District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. For this ranked-choice election, vote percentages are those in the final round of the ranked-choice tabulation in the certified results.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “LePage, 1+ pts” leads at 97%, up from 90% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “LePage, 3+ pts”, is at 29%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Nov 3, 2027.
