As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 98% probability that the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027. 21 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Exactly 0 cuts”: If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on). Resolved using Federal Reserve.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 21 outcomes. “Exactly 0 cuts” leads at 98%, up from 97% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Exactly 1 cut”, is at 1%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
