As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 80% probability that any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2030. 12 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2030”: If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Fox Business, ABC and CNBC.
This Companies market on OpinionKings has 12 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2030” leads at 80%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2031”, is at 78%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
