As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 86% probability that Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028. 42 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Ted Cruz”: If Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 42 outcomes. “Ted Cruz” leads at 86%, down from 88% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Ron DeSantis”, is at 84%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2028.
