As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 6% probability that year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026. 6 outcomes · resolves Feb 14, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 4.5%”: If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “At least 4.5%” leads at 6%, down from 22% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 5.5%”, is at 5%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Feb 14, 2027.
