As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 19% probability that China has overtaken US GDP by 2030. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using IMF.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 19%, up from 18% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2030.
