As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 55% probability that the answer to “Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain?” is “Before Jan 1, 2028”. 4 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2028”: If the Department of War or the White House announces an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The designation refers to the Department of War's supply-chain-risk designations of Anthropic under 41 U.S.C. 4713 and 10 U.S.C. 3252. Resolved using ABC, The Information and MSNBC.
