As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 96% probability that the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is between 49 million and 55 million fish. 6 outcomes · resolves Dec 4, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Between 49 and 55 million”: If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is between 49 million and 55 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column on the row labeled “Total run.” The separate “Inshore Run” figure will not be used. Resolved using Alaska Department of Fish and Game.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Between 49 and 55 million” leads at 96%, up from 15% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 55 million”, is at 7%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 4, 2026.
