As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 16% probability that the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country before Jan 20, 2029. 3 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 20, 2029”: If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using White House.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “Before Jan 20, 2029” leads at 16%, up from 8% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2028”, is at 9%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
