As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 53% probability that the annual base salary of all Members of Congress increases above $174,000 before Jan 1, 2030. 4 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2030”: If the annual base salary of all Members of Congress increases above $174,000 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. This includes increases by any mechanism, including new legislation, the existing automatic cost-of-living adjustment taking effect, or a final non-appealable court order. Back-pay awards, preliminary court rulings, and raises limited to leadership positions or specific offices do not qualify. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Resolved using The Verge, ABC and Fox News.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2030” leads at 53%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2029”, is at 43%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2029.
