As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 95% probability that above 3 Starship launches reach Space in 2026. 10 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 3”: If above 3 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Resolved using SpaceX.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 10 outcomes. “Above 3” leads at 95%, up from 91% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 4”, is at 23%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
