As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 88% probability that the answer to “Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?” is Yes. 2 outcomes · resolves Aug 1, 2028.
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If the Supreme Court, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, rules either that establishing a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin can displace Smith without an explicit exclusion of religious people or institutions, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Supreme Court.
