As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 19% probability that BLS reports that the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027, inclusive, is strictly above 3.7%. 2 outcomes · resolves Aug 6, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If BLS reports that the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027, inclusive, is strictly above 3.7%, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will use the 12-month percent change reported by BLS in the Employment Situation release for series CES0500000003. Settlement is based on the value initially reported for that reference month and subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
