As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 51% probability that a Congressional stock trading ban becomes law by January 20, 2029. 4 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 21, 2029”: If a Congressional stock trading ban becomes law between Issuance and January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. A Congressional stock trading ban can still allow members of Congress to place their stocks in a blind trust or to invest in "diversified assets" (e.g. ETFs) and still resolve to Yes. Please refer to the full rules for examples. Resolved using Library of Congress.
