As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 74% probability that the answer to “When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?” is “Before 2030”. 6 outcomes · resolves Jan 7, 2032.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2030”: If Hodge Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2030 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using The Washington Post, The Economist and Science.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 6 outcomes. “Before 2030” leads at 74%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before 2032”, is at 74%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 7, 2032.
