As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 50% probability that Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election. 31 outcomes · resolves May 30, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Marine Le Pen”: If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Fox News, MSNBC and The Wall Street Journal.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 31 outcomes. “Marine Le Pen” leads at 50%, up from 47% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Jean-Luc Mélenchon”, is at 12%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes May 30, 2028.
