As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 11% probability that the Labour Party, with the Labour Party holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030. 19 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Labour majority”: If the Labour Party, with the Labour Party holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. Resolved using Politico.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 19 outcomes. “Labour majority” leads at 11%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition”, is at 11%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2030.
