As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 96% probability that the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2035 is above 3.5%. 15 outcomes · resolves Jan 4, 2036.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 3.5%”: If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2035 is above 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
