As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above $200,000. 7 outcomes · resolves Mar 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above $200,000”: If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above $200,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry (NAICS 523) employees working in New York City for 2026. The OSC estimate includes cash bonuses and deferred compensation for which taxes have been withheld, and excludes stock options and other deferred compensation for which taxes have not yet been withheld. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 7 outcomes. “Above $200,000” leads at 97%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above $225,000”, is at 89%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Mar 31, 2027.
