As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 21% probability that Pete Hegseth leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of Defense before Dec 25, 2026. 9 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Dec 25, 2026”: If Pete Hegseth leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of Defense before Dec 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. Resolved using The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News and The Washington Post.
