As of Nov 13, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 8% probability that the answer to “Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal in 2026?” is Yes. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If the U.S. Department of Justice announces a fine or civil/criminal monetary penalty imposed on Nvidia, or agreed to by Nvidia in a settlement, concerning the Groq licensing deal announced on December 24, 2025 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreed settlement can qualify before court approval. Investigations, information demands, subpoenas, civil investigative demands, requests for penalties, statements about possible future fines, nonmonetary relief, and unrelated fines do NOT count. Resolved using U.S. Department of Justice Antitrust Division.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 8%, down from 13% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
