As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 54% probability that the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Dan Sullivan. 19 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Dan Sullivan”: If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Dan Sullivan, then the market resolves to Yes. Acting and Interim positions don't count. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
