As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 25% probability that Samuel Alito resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029. 9 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Samuel Alito”: If Samuel Alito resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes. Resolved using Supreme Court.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 9 outcomes. “Samuel Alito” leads at 25%, down from 62% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Clarence Thomas”, is at 22%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
