As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 95% probability that the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $500 billion dollars. 8 outcomes · resolves Feb 3, 2031.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
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4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above $500 billion”: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $500 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
