As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 37% probability that the population change in New York City is between 0.01% and 0.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027. 8 outcomes · resolves May 31, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Increase 0.01-0.99%”: If the population change in New York City is between 0.01% and 0.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. Resolved using The Wall Street Journal, BBC News and The Washington Post.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “Increase 0.01-0.99%” leads at 37%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “No change or decrease 0–0.99%”, is at 34%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes May 31, 2028.
